Apple, Samsung to Drive India's Smartphone Growth in 2025

• India is set to capture 20% of global smartphone manufacturing by 2025, driven by exports from Apple and Samsung.
• Investments from global and domestic firms have strengthened India’s manufacturing capacity to meet growing demands.
• While global production declines, India and Vietnam will benefit, with China’s output affected by tariffs.

According to Counterpoint Research, India will have 20% of the global smartphone manufacturing market by 2025 due to the increase in export demand, especially from Apple and Samsung. It will be unique in being in double-digit growth even as global smartphone manufacturing production declines. Along with Vietnam, India will be the only country to have growth from large scale manufacturing activity, concentrated heavily in Samsung and Motorola.

Counterpoint analyst Prachir Singh noted that involvement and investment opportunities from global electronics manufacturing services (e.g. Foxconn) and activity and investment from domestic firms has bolstered India's manufacturing capacity to absorb upward pressure as demands for growth increase.

Prachir Singh added, "Meanwhile, India’s overall manufacturing ecosystem is continuously growing, and local manufacturing is consistently improving, both in terms of yield and complexity".

Also Read: Govt Eases SEZ Norms for Semiconductor, Electronics Manufacturing

On a global scale, smartphone manufacturing is expected to be down by 1% in 2025 given the slowing of the industry and tariffs. The greatest beneficiaries will still be India and Vietnam while China is also facing tariff challenges with their output down. However, Vietnam's proximity to China and established contract manufacturing scenery provide a competitive advantage.

Neil Shah, Vice President at Counterpoint Research said, "If Apple really produced an iPhone in a US factory, considering that everything is not in place yet, my estimate is that the price will go up by at least 15%-20%, i.e., $150-$200. We believe this cost increase will be mostly due to the cost delta of labor, factories' amortised capex, and logistics".

In recent, Counterpoint revised its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth to 1.9% down from 4.2%. This reflects uncertainty on tariffs related to US supplier sources. However, most areas excluding North America and China, can expect growth upward growth. As 2025 fast approaches, India's work on manufacturing is innovative and moving as fast as possible. India and Vietnam will continue to be major beneficiaries of the global supply chain changes.

Ivan Lam, Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst stated, "...the tariffs have hurt industry players at every level – from upstream component suppliers to downstream importers and distributors, brands to manufacturers. Consequently, brand owners have no choice but to move out of China and allocate more production capacity and output in other countries".