Nigeria targets Indian market as Trump pushes Modi on Russia

• Indian refiners to receive Nigerian crude in September
• Tariffs and sanctions aim to reduce India’s Russian oil imports
• India likely to continue Russian imports despite Nigerian deliveries

In September, several oil refineries in India are expected to receive deliveries of crude oil from Nigeria, following a series of spot market deals concluded at the end of July.

The state-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) purchased one million barrels from the Agbami field, with deliveries handled by trader Trafigura. Similarly, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) has made purchases from Nigeria and Angola.

Historically, West African producers have exported limited volumes to India, focusing instead on domestic markets or customers in North America and Europe.

However, these shipments could be strategically important, given the mounting pressure on India from the Trump administration to reduce its oil imports from Russia. Securing Nigeria as an alternative supplier could yield significant benefits for West Africa, as India represents the world’s largest population and the fastest-growing oil demand market.

Despite the potential, experts remain cautious about the long-term impact of Nigeria’s crude deliveries. A key question is whether Indian refiners will actually comply with US pressure to reduce Russian oil imports.

Also Read: India Seeks New Ways to Shift Manufacturing Away from China

"Much remains to be seen", says Janiv Shah, who is vice president for oil commodity markets at consulting firm Rystad Energy. He says the apparent diplomatic warmth surrounding discussions between Indian, Chinese and Russian leaders in recent days offers the potential for deals that "reshape some global flows".

India significantly increased its purchases of Russian crude in 2022, attracted by discounted prices offered by Moscow amid EU sanctions. Over the past three years, India has been the world’s second-largest importer of Russian oil, after China, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

Trump’s recent efforts to pressure Russia through secondary sanctions and higher tariffs on countries importing Russian oil reportedly influenced the July deals with Nigerian suppliers.

The US implemented a 50% tariff on Indian imports starting 27 August. Yet, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has clearly stated that India will not yield to US demands to cut Russian imports.

As a result, Indian refiners are likely to continue sourcing Russian crude alongside deliveries from Nigeria, making the West African shipments important but unlikely to fully replace Russian supplies.

Janiv Shah stated, "Indian refiners resumed purchases [from Russia] shortly after the higher tariff rates were announced".