India to Curb Russian Oil Imports as US Sanctions Begin

• India cuts Russian crude imports from late Nov amid U.S. sanctions on Rosneft, Lukoil.
• Reliance, MRPL, HMEL halt; Nayara may continue; 50% of 1.8 mbpd affected.
• Shipments drop Dec; offset by Middle East, U.S.; normalizes to 250-350 kbpd early 2026.

Following​‍​‌‍​‍‌​‍​‌‍​‍‌ new U.S. sanctions on major Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil, which will take effect on November 21, India is planning to drastically reduce direct imports of Russian crude oil starting from late November 2025. Refineries, which are processing more than half of the Russian crude that India has been importing and are thus responsible for petrol and diesel production, are expected to comply with the shutdown, according to a maritime intelligence company Kpler, leading to a sharp reduction in shipments by December.

India's top importer with a long-term Rosneft contract, Reliance Industries Ltd, will stop buying. Two state-owned enterprises, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL) and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL), a JV of Lakshmi Mittal's Mittal Energy and Hindustan Petroleum, have declared that they will suspend their future import activities. These three companies were responsible for more than half of the total of 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) imported in the first half of 2025.

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While Nayara Energy's Vadinar refinery, partly owned by Rosneft and already subjected to EU sanctions, may continue with the supplies. Sumit Ritolia, Kpler's Lead Research Analyst, pointed out that Russia was India's main supplier in October with 1.6-1.8 mbpd, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia. The drop in supplies following the imposition of sanctions is expected, while recovery through intermediaries and alternative routes is also expected by early 2026, stabilizing at 250-350 thousand barrels per day (kbpd) in December-January.

Indian refiners are increasing their purchases from the Middle East, Latin America, West Africa, Canada, and the U.S. to fill the gap. The sanctions are intended to reduce the funds for the war in Russia and to have a negative effect on India's energy security amid discounted Russian ​‍​‌‍​‍‌​‍​‌‍​‍‌barrels.